Cristina Fernandez starts new mandate with more power and the challenge of crisis

Already showed more than that can govern without her husband. Now, in his second term, Cristina Fernandez faces the challenge of protecting Argentina of the international economic crisis without altering the essence of the populist model that earned him a historic victory in the elections presidential.

Fernandez, who will start its second session on 10 December, will face a more complex by the declining international situation Economic Outlook that will quite possibly be forced to seek consensus with various sectors and soften that some sectors described as an attitude autocrat who generates abundant criticism.

Political force will not miss. The President shall have a concentration of power as he does not remember in recent history, with a weak and fragmented opposition. But miss you the support of her deceased husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), who was considered an Economics Minister in the u000ashadows and his chief political adviser. The former President died on October 27, 2010.

However, Fernández, for 58 years, has made it clear that it has own weight. He continued to rule with firm hand after the death of his partner in life and was re-elected on October 23, 54,11 per cent of the votes, a recognition of the way in which it underpinned the economic growth and improved income of humble extending subsidies and provide wage increases and sectors of the pension.

"Is a courageous woman." "I did not hesitate when died him that she was going to replace", stated to AP Jorge Taiana, who was Chancellor for the administration of Kirchner and Fernández.

Fernandez, leader of the kircherismo, as it is known to the current center-left Peronist, will take control of Parliament and will rule in most of the 24 districts of the country.

"Now up to Cristina adjust pins of a model that paid the Baldwin eight long" u000a"years of growth, increase in retirements, low unemployment and consumption boom," said PA analyst Ignacio Fidanza, the site Politicaonline

The Economist Aldo Abram, director of the freedom Foundation, argued that all that could do with a favorable international scene, with high prices for agricultural products that sells Argentina. But "this second term the Government will have to pay all the costs of disasters that were made in the previous steps (alludes to Kirchner and Fernández)", said in a statement to the AP

Analyst Fidanza said that Fernandez has a "style of driving hipercentralizado, in which officials are dedicated more to 'read' the height of the power signals to act accordingly to cope with the many problems of the moment".

Few expect that Fernández alter his style of driving.

"Is difficult to suggest a winner to change manners with which came to the" u000a"place where stands, since that authority does not hold only on achievements of Government or in programs, but the effectiveness of the results", said Beatriz Sarlo essayist. "The electoral numbers not allowed laps." "The victory gives rights".

The complexity of the international scene, however, could compel the President "work more as a team", according to former Foreign Minister Taiana.

Conscious of the impact that can have in Argentina the crisis afflicting the developing world, Fernandez began to restrict public spending. But clarified that continue to protect the most disadvantaged classes, dropping so adjustment measures that apply in Europe.

The third-largest economy in Latin America has had an average growth of 7.6 per cent in the last eight years, according to the Minister of economy and Vice-President-elect, Amado Boudou. Until September, he accumulated an expansion of 9% and the Government expected that by 2012 it will be of u000a5.1. %

Some analysts reduced the forecast 4% and avizoran dark clouds on the horizon from capital flight by more than 20 billion dollars in 2011, according to private estimates, inflation was at least 27% by 2012 and the impact that may have international crisis in neighbouring Brazil, the main trading partner of Argentina, and in Chinaone major customers of products agricultural

Turn Argentina, which has great difficulties in accessing credit, will face in December maturities of Government by $ 950 million securities, while she faces due dates by about $ 3 billion of the so-called coupon of the gross domestic product, which is the payment to holders of debt when GDP exceeds a certain level of growth, economists warn.

In 2012 commitments to debt, between capital and interest, amount to 15 billion dollars.

According to Fidanza, "the decisions that have that" u000a"take (the Government) will not be easy and all entail political costs".

Taiana believes that there will be no changes radical.

"The issue of the role of the State, which is going to intervene and will regulate the conflict, is still present..." "There is no central exchange model, different forms according to the stage where it is and if we enter into a more difficult stage from the international point of view will have to make the appropriate corrections", told AP the former Chancellor, now director of the International Centre for political studies of the National University of San Martín.

A few days of his triumph, the ruler ordered the partial dismantling of schemes of benefits for different sectors that Kirchner had implemented in order to revive the economy after the devastating crisis of 2001, when the country declared cessation of payments on its debt of more than 100 billion dollars.

Subsidies amounted to 70,000 million pesos u000a(16.317 million dollars) annually. Progressively in recent days, the Government announced the Elimination of such subsidies to different users for the consumption of water, electricity and gas services. It means savings for the State of 1,127 million $.

Those affected by the direct elimination of subsidies are, among other sectors, the financial, telephony and games of chance; large energy, oil companies and agrochemical; dwellers of high purchasing power of Buenos Aires and the North of the Buenos Aires conourbano; of private clubs throughout the country; official city government units and systems of public lighting and motorways of Buenos Aires neighbors.

As long, residents of certain areas of the capital who will not suffer the direct removes of the subsidy will have the opportunity to express whether they want to keep it - citing reasons such as insufficient income - which will be verified by the Government case by u000acase.

This type of measure was claimed for some time by economists because of excessive spending public.

According to Fausto Spotorno, consultant Orlando Ferreres and Associates, "dismantle subsidies is a very complicated issue;" "you run the risk that you stop economic activity or it may trigger inflation", depending on how the cut is applied and what are the policies prosecutors.

The withdrawal of subsidies, on the other hand, can generate unrest popular, according to analysts.

Spotorno noted that the dismantling of such aid must "be accompanied by investment" and considered that it is a measure by now enough to "solve the problem of fiscal deficit", that it estimated for this year in 7.459 million dollars.

Days ago Fernández also referred first to the need to address the continued increase in prices, an issue which was taboo in his Government.

The official agency that calculates the cost of living u000a- and it is questioned by underestimate that index - points out that in the first ten months of the year inflation was 8%, while economists estimate that it would be more than double.

According to the IMF, Argentina is the second country with the higher inflation in the continent - 11.5% for 2011 and 11.8% for 2012 - after Venezuela.

In the process of sinceramiento of economic variables and saving expenditure, Fernandez will have to rethink his alliance with the trade union movement, which has been the mainstay of kirchnerism in eight years and that there was some friction in recent times.

One of the questions is what will be the wage increase to be fixed by the Government in labor negotiations in 2012 between entrepreneurs and gremialistas, which according to versions entrepreneurs, the ruling party would like to around 18%, below the rate of inflation calculated by private economists.

The General Labour Confederation (CGT), which u000aunions are attached as Teamsters, building and metallurgy, able to paralyse the economy if they propose, warned that "no floor or ceiling" to discuss wage increases

Fernández, on the other hand, must respond to new challenges while dealing with internal bids, most likely and early, desatarán to happen within peronism in elections of 2015.

Under the Constitution, the President can not aspire to a third term row.

On the external front, Taiana also considered that it should be Argentina to pay the debt with Paris Club ($6,800 million) for accessing credit more easily, although the Government should do "favourable to the country".

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