Gallup today: Hipólito above 58%

In an extreme Theatre, the official candidature simulated not come patting itself on the recent Gallup-today survey. Service to reject it, pretending to sell their fake "technical tie" fárragos and numerical superiority. Inside welcome and exclaim: "Grew nine points!" Hurra! "." We understand his drama: Gallup-today they turned off the light in the middle of the feast of his Vice-Presidency. And understand their joy: "internal" have "something" what show the deluded of foundations committees so that they do not discourage. "Look, grew up in nine points", tell them. We will show that if they grew was in 1%

Need it. It is difficult to tell people that he is in politics and comes down: are lost, chico!

Intelligent media, however, seek how to inform, to say: with time, elegance and prudence. In democracies ñlo taught don Mario Alvarez Duganñ the journalism contributes to political stability. Does not yield to u000atendentious intentionalities journalism ethics.

Say that Mejía remains unchanged and that his opponent was raised nine points is matter of titles and subtitles. Subscribed and the pregón journalism. Elegance, even before who is shaping up as the loser favorite before a Hipólito Mejía firmly entrenched as the winning favorite

See the reality not going with fanaticism. "Who wants to see that veaÖ" because the Gallup-now matches other polls that give winner Mejía, first round, and by far. They do not risk their record of successes.

Los PLDistas not accept it because its objective is to pass through the heart of the intelligence of the people with the perception that it can win. To be so down, they first need a "technical draw". After tying in his mind, began to shout: "so passed by three puntosÖ!"

But all the contrary.

Got that brings in the newly released Gallup-now say u000aPLDista candidacy is static. "Not growing that man", demonstrates. And shouts from the rooftops, the collapse of the allied parties. The minority moored in the "Alliance" disappear through dossiers leaked to the press and the Chamber of Auditors audits without justice moves an apex.

That explains that this Gallup-today the "minority" obtain reducidísimos values. And the vicious PLDístas Governments for the support of a political plurality that tolerates organized minorities. Politically, the numbers say the LDP does not negotiate nor respects: instrumentalized! It swallows leaders and minions! "No sonsaques to my people", said Balaguer asked Hipólito.

Three months ago, the PRSC appeared with 8.2 per cent in the intention of voting. It will be three months, "fell" information to the press and pressures of groups within public institutions conducted by reformers emerged. With that u000athey were media to Aristy, institutional internal and discredit the reformist officials. This is how they fell to Amable to 2.2%, they climbed to the PRSC ghostly clouds and arrinconaron reformist officials. Result: the PRSC evaporates in the Gallup-today and Amable Aristy lost 1.3%. The message is clear: "the allies ate mass, they will also eat the bone!".

Why of 8.2%, the PRSC fell to 2.2 per cent. Not it could be argued that the 1.3% lost by Amable happened to Hippolytus. It is clear, Yes, that the PRSC already endorsed what could be the official candidacy: 6%. There are no more red votes look. Their leaders sold the cattle. In the stories of the West the cattle go wild, broken fences, you mooring and running be said!

So the candidate of the LDP has not grown because votes colora you are in the LDP since 2003, auto annihilating it. As Chacumbele, "they themselves are killed" to give up their identity.

To these data, u000aforced that is to say: "Did not grow;" "pooled, forcibly".

Is, then, 3.5 per cent of votes placed. Let's see: Moreno contributed 0.25% to the LDP, unwittingly. To descend from 2.4% in August to 2.2%, today. The progressive national force, Max Puig, BIS and the others are faltering: are around 1% each one and perhaps together mean 2.0% or something else. Adding the missing votes of the PRSC and the minority (do including the loss of Moreno?), the official candidature swallowed nearly 8%. This leads to the question: is there growth when the allies re-juntan?

The answer is No. The candidacy of the LDP did not grow up. If it did, was in a Pyrrhic % 1.

is that, despite so much money, so much power and I rampage, Hippolytus appears unshakeable; firm, with 47.9%. At a juncture where 21% of the PLDistas and 35% of reformists vary, today, in his favour as only could lose, now 17%. That bring nervous!

Effectively. u000aIf we entrecruzamos the ganancias-pérdidas for the variability of the intention of voting presents the Gallup-today, double check that, if the election were now, Hipólito Mejía would win with 58.05 per cent against the 41.95% could obtain the official candidate. It is 16.1% above the candidate of the LDP. Also, 38.38% of what the LDP could reach.

Is a rational conclusion, despasionada. Derived from mathematics. Average pérdidas-ganancias by candidate. To avoid bias, not be her it quantified in the proportion of current sympathies. To do so, but sends him the rule, if the election were today, Hipólito derive more than 60%. "The numbers speak, compai" say in the field

In both the LDP dreams of getting all the votes to Hipólito and others could lose-according to this variance in the intension of the vote. They tenaciously dream that, in addition, Hipólito don't get one vote. Insatiable up to dreams, dream u000aeven more: to avoid losing a vote of yours! It is asking too much dreams not? Obviously forgot to Calderón: "and dreams, dreams are!"

The LDP was their hopes of triunfo in the chimera of an unrealistic political scene, deluded, dreamers and poets, such as that of "do what was never made". But they must go awakening. The Gallup-today survey tells them that if the election were today Hipólito Mejía won in the first round with the 58.05% of the votes.

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