Hipolito and the impact of the improbable

The analysis made in the political, sociological, economical, field of nature, or in any area almost always consider the estimable, average, common, basics, trend, etc. and this leads to expected, as far as possible; seldom analyses dealt less likely; that is why it is there will be unexpectedthe impact of the improbable and almost certainly that ends up being the news of the moment.

The above happened and happens with the candidate of the Revolutionary Party Dominicano (PRD), the Lord Hipólito Mejía.

Two years ago in and out of the PRD was given as a fact that the candidate to the Presidency for that party would be Mr Miguel Vargas Maldonado; however, in March of 2011 won the internal Convention of that party, former President of the Republic, Mr Hipolito Mejia.

Was the unexpected, unlikely; hence its impact immediately, both the internal and the u000aexternal of the PRD.

Was unlikely because the ABC of any analysis indicated that given the fact that Mr Mejía had been President with negative results; and that Mr Vargas Maldonado had competed with Dr. Leonel Fernández Reyna satisfactorily; also that it had not been President of the Republic, which controlled the main direction in their party postsThey projected as the sure winner of the Convention. It was the probable.

Ya Mejía as candidate and start-up launched campaign strategy model, presenting it as a different person, his team manages to position it in the first place in the polls. His strategists very happy with these results understood that nothing should vary under the premise that what it has given result is why change; but they lost sight of a factor, that is not in view, which is not the average, which is not the trend, the improbable, u000acaused by the unexpected: the exhaustion of the model campaign.

An election campaign in any country in the world can argue based on a slogan and the silence of their candidate. The slogan and silence end up exhausted because voters and sectors at the end demand proposals, set out with effective communication and obviously the silence and the slogan aren't sufficient.

But here comes the complication or dilemma, silence may be more than a fortress of the strategy was a necessity, the candidate does not control their emotional intelligence and goes on to say atypical behavior. If he speaks, is wrong or offends and if stays silent voters see it as a silent or has no proposals and change preferences.

Voters not only emit their vote by emotion; but also with the reason and although perhaps it is true that in one of the sections of the campaign the majority could show their intention to vote for passion, makers of u000aview public and private; as well as those who also have influence on the less educated or informed population, they end up having the time of the election and the gap between passion and reason closes in favour of the latter. This is what has happened in the current times

At the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) choose and proclaim their candidate and set up part of his electoral strategy and the model of the PRD campaign begin to give signs of exhaustion, has proved that three months ago was unlikely, as the candidate for the Presidency by the LDP, after having a difference of almost 15.0% in favour of the candidate of the PRDpass to be tied or to overcome it with a couple of percentage points, this despite the fact that the electoral offer of the LDP is now just completed and insurance that when it is measured the difference will be even greater.

The candidate Hipólito Mejía is happening what happened to Mr Miguel Vargas in the u000aConvention of the PRD, the impact of the highly improbable, that Mr Danilo Medina is occupying the first place in voter preference, walking to a final triumph in presidential elections on May 20, 2012.

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