Hormuz: war and peace

posted on: Jan 17 2012 7:51 by RDugey. Viewed 12 times.

In gatherings improvised between friends have been pleasant me lack of basic knowledge about geopolitical aspects that directly affect our economy, development and well-being. A recent and high-impact case is the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, in the troubled region of the Middle East.

If Albert Einstein were alive and they ask you what war?, probably would respond: "The absence of peace".

Today, no there is war in the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, there is peace. But peace, apparently very precarious.

100 Years ago, the steam was moved to the industrialized world. Today has been replaced by oil. Around 40% of the oil it consumes the industrialized world must pass through the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Now there is a great expectation among the rulers of the major industrialized countries in the world, especially America, u000aFrance, United Kingdom and Germany, by the progress made in the programme of Iranian nuclear development, insomuch that there were already warning of embargo to its oil. The President Ahmadinejad responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, i.e., the step forced traffic of the Arabo-Persian Gulf (Persian Gulf, according to experts, is a widely used incorrect term) toward the Indian Ocean.

This traffic concentrates: - 17 million barrels of oil day.

-25% of the global output of oil.

85% of Asian oil consumption. India Japan (china)

2.2 million barrels / day of oil Iran, representing 100 billion dollars a year. In addition to the most important trading of Middle East-Asia.

The consequences of the materialisation of a threat like this would have devastating effects in terms of supply of fossil fuels, with a consequent explosive increase of u000athe prices of oil and its derivatives.

International jurisdiction
from the legal point of view, since 1982, the Strait is international jurisdiction according to the Conference of the United Nations (UN) on the law of the Sea (1982).

According to the analysts, close the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is like firing a shot in the foot, that affected first would be the Iranian Government itself, because on top of the economic crisis, it would significantly reduce its own oil export to their friendly and allied countries such as China, which, of agreements to international economic newsletters, began to study alternatives for less Iranian oil reliance onlike Japan and Korea of South

can be inferred, for reasons above, that a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, affect Western economies of the large and small countries like ours, because the prices of the u000aoil and its derivatives would skyrocket, affecting, in the Dominican case, national development, social peace and well-being of all.

Few days ago, Iran, died in a Senior Executive of the plant where the process of heavy water being developed. The Iranian official Mustafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed in an attack with explosives placed in his car. The US Government emphatically denied any involvement or connection with the attack.

While, they have been producing "incidents" between American and Iranian ships. On 6 January this year that just began, it seems to have been staged a turning point in relations between Iran and the United States.UU; (the area, during this journey, incidents occurred in two relevant: 1) three speedboats of combat Iranian pursued an American warship near the Strait of Hormuz; (2) Hours later, there was another similar incident with a ship of the u000aCoast Guard of the United States, (USCG). Fortunately, the Iranians withdrew to continue the pursuit, without requiring that the Americans opened fire.

An election year
This is an important election year in the USA, and its President is aware of everything that is at stake in the political arena, knowing also that international relations are one of the axes of any campaign. It has therefore taken the initiative, warning to the Iranian Government to refrain from any action that threatens the transport of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Iran in Ecuador, Majid Salihl, Ambassador said this week that the warning of his country to close the passage of oil by the Strait of Hormuz is only defensive.

Said the Ambassador Salihl-that anyone can try to impose their model, "simply because it is powerful" and, after advocating alliances of cultures and u000acivilizations, recalled that his village has more than nine thousand years of history and has contributed greatly to the civilization human.

Reminded the Iranian diplomat that the first declaration on human rights and democracy was made in Persia, at the time of Darius and added that: "It is unacceptable that someone intends to give lessons in democracy to Iran".

Apparently, these actions by the Iranians, would be a response to the new initiative of the United States tends to restrict the purchase of its oil by Western countries which Iran could be forced to offer discounts on the price in order to be able to continue putting their surpluses in the international market.

In parallel to these incidents between the two countries, and as a result of the attacks in waters near the Strait of Hormuz by Somali pirates, US warships have rescued over the past few weeks to two groups of u000aIranian crew had been taken prisoner by the pirates.

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, has its narrowest width in approximately 54 kilometers, i.e. taking into account the requirements of the United Nations Convention on the law of the sea, it would roughly 15 miles of exclusive economic zone (ZEE), every coastal State. Vessels of all States, so they have the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea. Innocent passage means surf the uninterruptedly. However, it also includes arrest and anchoring in that they constitute normal incidents of navigation or by force majeure.

According to opinions expressed by Western commentators on military topics: "If either deliberate or accidental begin military action in this area by the two States now quasi-belligerents, probably the contest would" u000awon by the American side. "However, the capacity of laying mines in the waters, in addition to the non quantifiable ability to attack with missiles from the coast, would this war ended without winners, because both sides were losing".

The latest international reports provides an overview of the Government of Iran to study a letter which sent you the Government of the United States, on the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial transport route for oil Tehran threatened to close if West imposes sanctions against its exports of crude oil by their program nuclear.

"The Islamic Republic is studying the letter and will respond to it if necessary," said last night at press spokesman of the Ministry of the Iranian Foreign Affairs, Ramin Mehmanparast, without revealing the content of the letter.

In addition to the threats to Hormuz, according to international cables, Iran began last week to enrich uranium in an underground plant u000aand condemned to a National Iranian-American to the penalty of death on charges of espionage.

The consequences of globalization, the good and the bad, affect all the terrestrial globe. Viewing with the telescope of the new world stage, the distance from the Caribbean, we understand that the impact of a possible war conflagration in the aforementioned Strait, would affect the economies of countries in developing such as ours, and the wobbly financial situation of the euro-zona; not to mention the American.

The consequences of globalization, the good and the bad, affect all the terrestrial globe. Viewing with the telescope of the new world stage, the distance from the Caribbean, we understand that the impact of a possible war conflagration in the aforementioned Strait, would affect the economies of countries in developing such as ours, and the wobbly financial situation of the euro-zona; without u000afail to mention the American.

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A fleet of more of 20 SUBMARINES
Iranians, with its 70 ports, in the 200 kms of coastline to the North of the Persian Gulf, have a fleet of more than 20 submarines Ghadir of 120 tons (locally made) and (3) submarines, type kilo, manufacturing Russian missile of medium and small scope, and approximately 100 ships (patrols) of surface of fast actionmostly acquired in China, with missiles airemar.

Americans are the largest world war power. Precisely, from 15 January until 17 February this year, unfolds the exercise dubbed "Cobra Gold 2012" in the Philippine Pacific waters.

Without forgetting military bases of the US and France, highlighting the presence and recent order of mobilization by the Secretary of defense from USA, Leon Panetta, the powerful V American naval fleet, with the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson at the u000aVanguard, charging 90 aircraft aboard, basing rights in Bahreim, on the South coast of the Persian Gulf, off the Iranian North Coast and not far away the Persian Gulf or Arab Persian, which has a depth of only 50mts; in some spaces characteristics in naval operations which reduces the action of submarine attacks.

"The Strait of Hormuz is completely under our control." "Will not allow any enemy threatening our interests," said the head of the Iranian Navy, Admiral Habibola Sayyari, with particular emphasis on the development of the missile Ghader, he said, with the capacity to destroy warships.

Iran and United States do not have direct diplomatic relations since the Islamic revolution of 1979 and since then the Swiss Embassy represents US interests in the Republic Islamic.